摘要: 在世界百年未有之大变局加速演进、全球经济格局深度调整、技术进步加速迭代的复杂背景下,党的二十届四中全会深入分析国内国际形势,就制定国民经济和社会发展“十五五”规划谋篇布局。2026 年是“十五五”规划开局之年,如何通过制度型开放构建更高水平开放型经济新体制,以深化改革进一步做强国内大循环,进而通过国内国际循环协同共振实现发展范式转型升级,是攸关我国中长期高质量发展的核心命题。为此,《探索与争鸣》编辑部在 2025 年 9 月与华东师范大学经济与管理学院联合举办“‘十五五’高质量发展 :制度型开放与畅通内循环”圆桌会议的基础上,特邀相关专家学者围绕做强国内大循环与制度型开放的改革路径、政策创新、联动机制等展开深度对话,分“大循环”和“制度型开放”两期专题刊发,希冀从理论维度助力“十五五”时期我国经济的高质量发展与普惠包容、互利共赢的开放型世界经济秩序的构建。
刘世锦研究员指出,当前中国经济发展需要重点识别、培育并利用好三类增长优势——追赶潜能优势、新技术革命优势、超大规模市场经济优势,构建以“制造强国”“消费强国”“金融强国”为核心的“基础三角结构”。刘元春教授认为,“十五五”时期是为实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期,必须把握好经济长期向好的基本趋势将带动“质”与“量”的跃升,以及宏观经济周期再平衡两条发展主线,在此基础上提出“十五五”时期速度、质量与温度协同发展的路径。陈道富研究员探讨了“十五五”时期畅通国内大循环的五个维度 :一是国内大市场的统一 ;二是生产与消费的平衡 ;三是储蓄与投资的有效转换 ;四是在代际传承和代际公平中实现代际循环 ;五是技术跃迁下新旧动能的转换。乔依德研究员认为,推动和做强国内大循环要重点处理好四对关系:消费与投资的关系;高端产业与传统产业的关系;企业出海与就地深耕的关系;实体经济与金融业的关系。高帆教授指出,畅通国内大循环的理论根基源于马克思主义政治经济学的经济循环理论;实践层面需筑牢四大支柱——需求扩展、产业转型、科技创新和对接畅通。王宁教授指出,当前我国生产与消费内循环面临“互倚性困境”,其深层社会基础在于“私域社会发达、公域社会孱弱”的结构,破解困境需要借助数字化与代际更替推动社会基础重构,达成新型合作治理。
Abstract: The year 2026 marks the beginning of the “15th Five-Year Plan”. The core issue for China’s medium and long-term high-quality development is how to establish a new system of higher-level open economy through institutional opening-up, deepen reforms to further smoothen the domestic circulation, and achieve transformation and upgrading of the development paradigm through synergistic resonance. Based on the roundtable discussion on “High-quality Development in the ‘15th Five-Year Plan’: Institutional Opening-up and Smooth Domestic Circulation”, we have specially invited relevant experts and scholars to engage in in-depth discussions on the reform path, policy innovation, and linkage mechanism for strengthening domestic circulation and institutional opening-up. The outcomes of the meeting will be published in two installments.
Researcher Liu Shijin emphasized that the current economic development of China needs to focus on identifying, cultivating, and leveraging three types of growth advantages: the advantage of catching up potential, the advantage of the new technological revolution, and the advantage of a super-large market economy, to build a “basic triangular structure” centered around “a strong manufacturing country” “a strong consumption country” and “a financial power”. Professor Liu Yuanchun believes that it is essential to grasp the two main development trajectories: the long-term positive trend of the economy driving a leap in both “quality” and “quantity”, and the cyclical rebalancing of the macro economy, to achieve a coordinated development path of speed, quality, and temperature. Researcher Chen Daofu discussed the dimensions of smoothing the domestic circulation during the “15th Five-Year Plan” period: first, achieving the unification of the domestic market; second, maintaining a dynamic balance between production and consumption; third, improving the effective conversion mechanism from savings to investment; fourth, realizing intergenerational circulation through intergenerational inheritance and equity; and fifth, the transformation of old and new driving forces under technological leapfrogging. Researcher Qiao Yide discussed four pairs of relationships that need to be well handled to promote and strengthen the domestic circulation: the relationship between consumption and investment; the relationship between high-end industries and traditional industries; the relationship between enterprises going global and deepening local roots; and the relationship between the real economy and the financial industry. Professor Gao Fan pointed out that the theoretical foundation of smoothing the domestic circulation stems from the economic circulation theory of Marxist political economy; at the practical level, four pillars need to be firmly established: demand expansion, industrial transformation, technological innovation, and smooth operation of docking. Professor Wang Ning pointed out that the current domestic circulation of production and consumption in China faces a “mutual dependence dilemma”. The underlying social foundation of this dilemma lies in the structure of “a developed private sphere and a weak public sphere”. To overcome this dilemma, it is necessary to leverage digitalization and intergenerational replacement to promote the reconstruction of social foundations and achieve a new type of cooperative governance.
刘世锦、刘元春、陈道富、乔依德、高帆、王宁. 大循环:“十五五”高质量发展(上)(刘世锦、刘元春、陈道富、乔依德、高帆、王宁)[J]. 探索与争鸣, 2026(1): 4-27.
Liu Shijin & Liu Yuanchun & Chen Daofu & Qiao Yide & Gao Fan & Wang Ning. Domestic Circulation: High-Quality Development in the “15th Five-Year Plan” (Part Ⅰ)[J]. Exploration and Free Views, 2026(1): 4-27.