摘要： 在新冠肺炎疫情的冲击下，世界经济的衰退可能持续五年左右，而各国内向化政策的转变也可能持续五年左右，因此中国需要为未来十年增长机制的转型做好政策准备。当中国经济增长的外部拉动力减小，中国应对外部冲击的最大空间不在于推动传统消费的恢复或传统产业的扩大，而在于加快新兴产业的成长。疫情将带来全球供应链关系的一场大调整，其不同于周期性危机，是国际供应链的突然断裂。重建供应链提出了传统的命题，即国际分工在效率与风险之间的权衡。国际贸易分工格局将出现以内向化为特征的调整，中国的进出口结构也将发生变化，中国需要推进贸易目的地多样化战略。改变贸易分工地位的从属性，变被动为主动，是中国贸易战略转型的方向。外资将有退有进，成本寻求型外资会减少，但市场吸引型的外资会增长。中国经济的大国效应是引资的主要优势，把握这一趋势是未来外资政策的依据。美国的逆全球化和与中国“脱钩”的政策，使开放的国际环境发生了重大变化，因此需要重新定位对外开放，从利用全球化机遇的被动融入，转变为减少国际供应链风险的主动规划与转型升级，其中，提升开放型经济的发展水平是开放的核心。

关键词: 对外开放, 增长动力, 贸易结构, 外资撤离, 提升开放水平

Abstract: Under the impact of the novel coronavirus, the recession of the world economy may last about ?ve years, and the transformation of inward policies of various countries may also last about ?ve years. Therefore, China needs to make policy preparations for the transformation of growth mechanism in the next decade. The epidemic situation will bring about a great adjustment of global supply chain relations, which puts forward the traditional proposition for the reconstruction of supply chain. The pattern of international trade division of labor will be adjusted with the characteristics of internalization, and China’s import and export structure will also change. The anti globalization of the United States and the policy of “decoupling” from China have brought about signi?cant changes in the open international environment. Therefore, it is necessary to reorientate the opening up from the passive situation of taking advantage of the opportunities of globalization to the active planning, transformation and upgrading of reducing the risks of the international supply chain. Among them, improving the development level of the open economy is the core of opening up. 

Key words: opening up, growth momentum, trade structure, withdrawal of foreign investment, improving the level of opening up