摘要：

一场突袭而来的新冠疫情，在给全球按下暂停键的同时，使得全球经济蒙上阴影，亦使得“百年未有之大变局”充满了变数。2008年全球金融危机的余威尚未消散，全球化再次处于疫情引发的“熔断”状态，全球产业链与供应链陷入“停摆”，世界政治经济趋于“收缩”。当开放和包容可能不再成为当下全球化的主流，全球经济“慢性萧条”的苗头开始显现，传统意义上的总量型、稳定型战略机遇期正在缩小，我们需要通过追溯世界经济的演化机制及其结构性矛盾，思索中国经济下一步转型发展的核心问题与关键路径，特别是在区域化和数字化中探寻经济治理的新规则、新议题和新空间。在上海市经济学会和世界经济学会的大力支持下，《探索与争鸣》编辑部特邀相关领域的知名学者，共同探讨“疫情之后的世界经济格局与中国经济修为”，在“变”中求解“应变”方略，推进合作共赢，彰显大国责任。

权衡研究员认为，在“大变局”与“大复兴”的历史交汇期，要避免出现“大乱局”，就需要顺应大变局的内在规律和发展趋势，准确把握国际投资贸易规则从发挥比较优势规律、遵循自由贸易，到注重公平贸易、安全贸易以及投资自由化、便利化等实践逻辑转换，密切关注新规则及其核心议题，积极推动和引领世界开放包容发展以及国内经济转型升级。蔡昉研究员认为，新冠疫情是对社会公平正义和收入分配的一次压力测试，历史将摒弃以自由放任的市场为魂的涓流经济学，中国“以人民为中心”的新理念以及在各种风险挑战中托底民生的新机制，将获得越来越多的认同。华民教授认为，全球化经历了从国家同质到国家异质，从国家间相互合作到理性协调，再到大国博弈的演变过程。“和平接力”与“和为贵”是值得倡导的，异质国家走向合作的答案只能是“求同存异”。李实教授认为，欧美抗议警察暴力执法运动背后，是疫情之下底层民众对社会长期财富分配不公的抗争。资本的全球流动，高科技的加速发展，以及各国公共政策的调整，客观上加剧了全球财富分配不平等。中国应该引以为戒，加快收入分配制度改革。潘英丽教授认为，全球经济正在进入慢性萧条期，在其影响下中国经济增长的下行趋势将难以避免。在“去全球化”背景下中国面临“去工业化”的压力，中国工业只有“瘦身”才能“强体”。中国当下经济转型的核心是培育有效率的企业组织，而培育好企业的关键是政府行政体制的进一步改革。黄建忠教授认为，全球化发生逆转并非始于疫情，全球化遇到的根本问题是实体经济结构性矛盾及其作用下普遍的收入分配两极化。存量上的“挂钩”和增量上的“脱钩”，将是全球化中长期的趋势。当我国的战略机遇期面临变异，更加需要主动创造和动态把握，特别是加强产业链的稳定性与供应链的安全性，重点打造六大供应链。殷德生教授认为，疫情对全球产业链的影响将呈现两大趋势：一是全球产业链区域化格局将进一步强化；二是美德中三大产业链之间的联系网络将以数字化形式趋于更加紧密。全球产业链不会收缩，产业链数字化、价值链数据化、创新链平台化和供应链智能化的趋势将日益加强，并将深度影响着世界经济增长的动力、结构和形态。

——主持人　李梅

Abstract:  A sudden outbreak of the epidemic making the global people in danger, and cast a shodow for the global economy. We need to study the theoretical problems of trickle economics, trace the evolution mechanism of the world economy and its structural contradictions, think about the core issues and key paths of China’s economic transformation and development in the next step, especially to explore new rules, new issues and new space of economic governance in the process of regionalization and digitization.?Quan Heng believes that it is necessary to comply with the inherent law and development trend of the great changes, actively promote and lead the world’s open and inclusive development, and promote the transformation and upgrading of the domestic economy. Cai Fang believes that history will abandon trickle economics, give birth to a new concept of “people-centered” and a new mechanism to support people’s livelihood in various risks and challenges. Hua Min believes that “peace relay” and “harmony is precious” are worth advocating. The only way for heterogeneous countries to cooperate is to seek common ground while reserving differences. Li Shi believes that the global flow of capital, the accelerated development of high technology and the adjustment of public policies in various countries have objectively exacerbated the inequality of global wealth distribution. China should take a warning and speed up the reform of income distribution system. Pan Yingli believes that the core of China’s current economic transformation is to cultivate efficient enterprise organizations, and the key to cultivate good enterprises is the further reform of the government administrative system. Professor Huang Jianzhong believes that “linking up” in stock and “decoupling” in increment will be the medium and long-term trend of globalization. When China’s strategic opportunity period is facing changes, it is more necessary to actively create and dynamically grasp. Yin Desheng believes that the global industrial chain will not shrink, and the trend of digitalization of industrial chain, digitalization of value chain, platform of innovation chain and intellectualization of supply chain will be strengthened day by day, which will deeply affect the power, structure and form of world economic growth.