摘要：

当大国之间发生权力变迁时，即一个国家的国家力量增长速度长期快于其他国家时，大国间容易爆发冲突乃至战争。而和平权力变迁的实现，要求崛起国家和守成国家同时采取战略克制。崛起国家的战略克制在于，该国能否避开有利于向守成国家投送军事力量的区域，以限制其攻击能力；守成国家的战略克制在于，该国能否合理定义对其国家安全重要的核心势力范围，这将决定守成国家的威胁评估标准。历史上主要的大国权力变迁案例，即1891—1904年日俄间的权力变迁、1870—1914年英德间的权力变迁、1841—1926年英美间的权力变迁、1923—1941年美德间的权力变迁，均可验证上述主张。

关键词: 权力变迁 ,  权力转移 ,  地缘政治 , 战略克制 ,  安全利益

Abstract:

When a country’s national strength grows faster than that of other countries for a long time, conflicts or even wars are likely to break out. The realization of peaceful power shifts requires both rising and declining powers to adopt strategic restraint. When a rising power adopts strategic restraint, it will limit its ability to attack by expanding away from areas providing advantages to project military powers to the declining power. On the other hand, the strategic restraint of a declining power lies in whether it can reasonably define the core sphere of influence important to its national security, which determines its threat assessment criteria.

Key words: