摘要：
理解当下中国的低生育问题，有必要区分“政策性低生育”与“内生性低生育”两个阶段。研究发现，政策性低生育阶段远比人们想象和预判得短促，中国早在2000年就已步入内生性低生育阶段。内生性低生育阶段的风险具有更深层次的社会意义，具备长期性、彻底性、结构性和外部性等特征，治理难度大。其内生性特征亦要求国家尊重生育决策的主体性，必须人文引导适度生育，创建生育友好型社会。中国当前存在“想生不能生”和“愿生不敢生”两种不友好形态，以及追求生育变量的工具性而忽视其人文性的不友好价值取向，需要及时向“生育友好型社会”转型。其中，赋权生育是逻辑起点，而构建适度生育文化，完善生育支持体系，抚平“传统计生”伤痛，国家共担生养责任与尊重包容生育状态的多样性，分别是“生育友好型社会”的文化基础、社会基础、信任基础、制度基础和人文基础。
关键词:
政策性低生育｜内生性低生育｜生育友好型社会｜优化生育｜包容性生育政策
Abstract:
To understand the current low fertility status in China, it is necessary to distinguish between birth control policy-based low fertility (exogenous low fertility) and endogenous low fertility. This study found that the exogenous low fertility stage is much shorter than people imagined in China. The risk of endogenous low fertility stage has deeper social significance and has the characteristics of long-term, thoroughness, structure and externality, so it is difficult to manage. Its endogenous characteristics also require the state to respect the subjectivity of fertility decision-making, to guide appropriate fertility and to create a fertility friendly society.
Key words:
birth control policy-based low fertility｜endogenous low fertility｜fertility-friendly society｜optimize fertility｜inclusive fertility policy
穆光宗, 林进龙.
三孩政策与中国人口长期均衡发展｜论生育友好型社会——内生性低生育阶段的风险与治理
[J]. 探索与争鸣, 2021(7): 56-69.
Mu Guangzong & Lin Jinlong.
The Fertility-friendly Society——Risk and Governance in the Era of Endogenous Low Fertility
[J]. Exploration and Free Views, 2021(7): 56-69.