摘要：
人口预测和人口规划是中国国民经济和社会发展规划的重要组成部分。通过梳理1980—2020年中国总人口的预测值、规划值和实际值，构建偏差率指标，对历次人口发展规划进行差距分析可以发现，中国人口规模的预测和规划均存在高估的系统性偏差，这放大了人口数量增长效应。而系统性偏差是人口估算方法的局限性、人口规划的主观性以及人口问题的选择性建构等多重因素共同作用的结果。在此基础上，为了未来的人口预测与人口规划更具科学价值与政策意义，建议从三个方面应对人口预测与人口规划偏差：一是辩证地看待人口预测与人口规划的作用与限度；二是加强人口规划编制工作的科学管理；三是转变人口控制的规划理念与政策实践，尊重客观规律与加强科学研究。
Abstract:
The prediction and planning of population is an important part of China’s national economic planning. It arranges the predicted value, planned value and actual value of China’s total population from 1980 to 2020, and analyzes the gap within the previous population planning by constructing the index of bias rate. The results show that the prediction and planning of China’s population are both seriously overestimated, which exaggerates the development of population for a long time. The systematic bias is the result of the limitations of population estimation methods, the subjective arbitrariness of planning and the selective construction of problems. This paper puts forward some suggestions to deal with the systematic bias, in order to give more scientifific value and policy signifificance to the population projection.
Key words:
population prediction｜population planning｜systematic bias｜population size
陈友华, 孙永健. 三孩政策与中国人口长期均衡发展｜人口预测和人口规划系统性偏差之特征、原因与应对[J]. 探索与争鸣, 2021(7): 80-89.
Chen Youhua & Sun Yongjian.
Systematic Bias of Population Prediction and Planning: Characteristics, Causes and Countermeasures
[J]. Exploration and Free Views, 2021(7): 80-89.