摘要：
改革开放以来，我国通过农村劳动力大规模非农化流转、进入城市就业而促进了城乡融合发展。现阶段中国的现代化进程呈现出三大历史性趋势——劳动年龄人口的持续下降、城市化的相对减速、数字和绿色经济的快速崛起，它们分别从供给结构、需求结构、产业结构等方面影响着中国经济发展。这三大趋势相互交汇，对我国城乡融合发展的实现路径也产生了重要影响：劳动年龄人口持续下降、城市化相对减速影响了农村劳动力非农化流转的规模和速度，而数字和绿色经济崛起则对城乡融合发展产生了“双刃剑”效应。新时代我国应基于三大历史性趋势的交汇特征，因势利导地完善和改进城乡融合发展路径，对城乡劳动力流动方向、城乡劳动力流动基础、城乡空间分布、城乡部门产业特征、城乡部门功能定位等进行重新审视。
关键词:
劳动年龄人口,
城市化率,
数字经济,
绿色经济,
城乡融合发展
Abstract:
Since the reform and opening up, China has promoted
the integrated development of urban and rural areas through the large-scale
non-agricultural transfer of rural labor and employment in cities. At the
present stage, China’s modernization process presents three
historical trends: the continuous decline of the working age population, the
relative deceleration of urbanization, and the rapid rise of the digital and
green economy, which affect China’s economic development from the supply
structure, the demand structure, and the industrial structure. These three
major trends intersect with each other, and have also had an important impact
on the realization path of China’s urban-rural integrated development. In the new
era, China should improve the development path of urban-rural integration based
on the intersection of the three historical trends.
Key words:
working age population,
urbanization rate,
digital
economy,
green economy,
urban-rural integration development
高帆. 不确定性与城市治理（二）|三大历史性趋势下的中国城乡融合发展路径[J]. 探索与争鸣, 2022(9): 67-77.
Gao Fan. The
Development Path of Urban-Rural Integration in China under the Three Historical
Trends[J]. Exploration and Free Views, 2022(9): 67-77.