摘要：

中国于2022年首次在正常发展时期出现人口负增长，预计2020—2060年的劳动适龄人口规模整体呈下降趋势，劳动适龄人口老化水平整体呈上升趋势。劳动适龄人口规模和年龄结构的变化将对人力资本存量产生负面影响。2020—2040年，预计我国的人力资本存量有一定增长。这主要有两方面原因：其一，劳动适龄人口平均受教育年限的持续延长提高了人均人力资本，从而在一定程度上抵消了人口规模缩减和年龄结构老化对人力资本存量的负面影响；其二，20世纪80年代至90年代中期出生的人口在2040年前后仍是劳动力的重要来源，他们庞大的规模和较高的学历构成了人力资本存量的坚实基础。但随着这批人在2040—2050年步入退休高峰期，人力资本存量将急剧下降，2050—2060年的人力资本存量将继续回落。今后20年是抑制未来人力资本存量锐减的重要机会窗口，要努力推动人口高质量发展，增加高素质劳动力的有效供给。

关键词:

人力资本, 人口高质量发展, 人口负增长, 劳动力, 机会窗口

Abstract:

China entered the era of population decline in 2022. Between 2020 and 2060, the size of the working-age population will generally be on a downward trend, while the aging of the working-age population will generally be on an upward trend. Changes in the size and age structure of the working-age population will decrease the human capital stock. From 2020 to 2040, there will be some growth in China’s human capital stock. It is mainly due to two reasons: first, the sustained increase in the average years of schooling of the working-age population raises human capital per capita, thereby offsetting to some extent the adverse effects of population shrinkage and aging on human capital stock; second, the population born in the 1980s to mid-1990s remains an essential source of labor force until around 2040, and their large size and relatively high educational attainment form a solid base of human capital stock. However, as most of this cohort reaches retirement age in 2040-2050, the human capital stock will decline dramatically and continue falling back in 2050-2060. Therefore, the next two decades are a window of opportunity to prevent a future plunge in human capital stock. It is necessary to promote high-quality population development and increase the effective supply of highly qualified labor.

Key words:

human capital,  high-quality population development,  population decline,  labor force,  window of opportunity