摘要： 我国于2025 年启动的渐进式延迟退休改革，是推动“以人口高质量发展支撑中国式现代化”的重要政策举措。对比中国与OECD 国家的退休时预期余寿可以发现，即便实施延迟退休政策，未来中国民众享有的退休生活时间仍相对较长。预测2025—2060 年延迟退休改革实施前后的中国劳动适龄人口规模、人力资本存量和社会养老负担水平，可以得出渐进式延迟退休改革的潜在政策效果及其三重人口战略意义。与此同时，延迟退休改革也可能面临诸多挑战，包括就业压力加剧、健康风险上升、家庭照料不足、创新活力下降等，必须未雨绸缪，通过行之有效的配套措施确保改革的稳妥有序推进。
关键词:
延迟退休,
人口老龄化,
人力资本,
养老负担,
中国式现代化
Abstract:
China’s progressive delayed retirement reform, starting in 2025, is a critical policy measure to advance Chinese-style modernization by fostering high-quality population development. A comparison of life expectancy at retirement between China and OECD countries reveals that even with the implementation of a delayed retirement policy, the length of retirement enjoyed by Chinese people will remain relatively long in the future. By forecasting the size of China’s working-age population, the stock of human capital, and the level of aging population burdens before and after the implementation of the delayed retirement policy from 2025 to 2060, three potential demographic strategic significances of the progressive delayed retirement reform can be identified. At the same time, delayed retirement may face some challenges, including increased employment pressure, rising health risks, insufficient family care, and a decline in innovation vitality. It is essential to plan ahead and formulate effective supporting measures to ensure the steady and orderly progress of the reform.
Key words:
delayed retirement
,
population aging
,
human capital
,
aging population burdens
,
Chinese path to modernization
赵晓航, 李建新. 渐进式延迟退休改革的潜在政策效果——基于国际比较与人口预测的分析[J]. 探索与争鸣, 2025(7): 86-99.
Zhao Xiaohang & Li Jianxin. Potential Policy Outcomes of Progressive Delayed Retirement Reform: An Analysis Based on International Comparison and Population Forecast[J]. Exploration and Free Views, 2025(7): 86-99.