探索与争鸣 ›› 2020, Vol. 1 ›› Issue (4): 45-51.

• 本刊特稿 • 上一篇    下一篇

重识中国与世界(二十) | 疫情叠加衰退:呼唤多边反危机协调新模式

雷达,武京闽    

  • 出版日期:2020-04-24 发布日期:2020-04-24

Superposition of Epidemic and Recession: Calling for a New Model of Multilateral Anti Crisis Coordination

  • Online:2020-04-24 Published:2020-04-24

摘要: 全球蔓延的新冠疫情不仅造成中国经济的短期停摆,给中国长期增长的经济施加下行压 力,而且种种迹象显示,其极可能将引发全球深度的经济衰退。新冠疫情对全球经济冲 击的传导途径是:公共卫生事件 → 公共管理的应急 → 经济活动的停摆 → 经济增长出现下降的拐点 → 反危机应急。这一传导路径也使得传统的反危机的国际协调机制陷入 困境。在全球疫情尚未控制、全球反危机缺乏协调切入点的现实面前,任何受疫情冲击 的经济体,都无法独善其身,难以单独依赖一国的宏观政策来应对这种疫情叠加衰退的全球性危机。因此,在国际协调的反危机新模式层面,既要重新审视现存的国际经济秩序在处理全球外部性事件中的制度缺陷,更应改变以往国际经济协调的利得观念,在一些具体领域开展国际间的合作和协调,以期实现全球反危机协调的共赢。 

关键词: 新冠疫情, 经济衰退, 反危机, 合作, 协调机制 

Abstract: The global epidemic not only caused a short-term halt of China’s economy, but also put downward pressure on China’s long-term economic growth. Moreover, there are various signs that it is likely to cause a deep global economic recession. The transmission path of the epidemic to the global economic impact is: public health events → public management emergency → stagnation of economic activities → turning point of economic growth decline → anti crisis emergency. This transmission path makes the traditional anti crisis international coordination mechanism in a dilemma. 

Key words: COVID-19 epidemic, economic recession, anti crisis, cooperation, coordination mechanism